ABSTRACT
Background SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveys estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against historical variants which nears 100% in many settings. New analytic approaches are required to exploit the full information in serosurvey data. Method Using a SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike (S) protein chemiluminescent microparticle assay, we attained a semi-quantitative measurement of population IgG titres in serial cross-sectional monthly samples of routine blood donations across seven Brazilian state capitals (March 2021-November 2021). In an ecological analysis (unit of analysis: age-city-calendar month) we assessed the relative contributions of prior attack rate and vaccination to antibody titre in blood donors. We compared blood donor anti-S titre across the seven cities during the growth phase of the Delta variant of concern (VOC) and use this to predict the resulting age-standardized incidence of severe COVID-19 cases. Results On average we tested 780 samples per month in each location. Seroprevalence rose to >95% across all seven capitals by November 2021. Driven proximally by vaccination, mean antibody titre increased 16-fold over the study. The extent of prior natural infection shaped this process, with the greatest increases in antibody titres occurring in cities with the highest prior attack rates. Mean anti-S IgG was a strong predictor (adjusted R2 =0.89) of the number of severe cases caused by the Delta VOC in the seven cities. Conclusions Semi-quantitative anti-S antibody titres are informative about prior exposure and vaccination coverage and can inform on the potential impact of future SARS-CoV-2 variants. Summary In the face of near 100% SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, we show that average semi-quantitative anti-S titre predicted the extent of the Delta variant’s spread in Brazil. This is a valuable metric for future seroprevalence studies.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
There are large differences in the shape and size of regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Brazil. Here we tested monthly blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in eight of Brazil’s most populous cities. There was large variation in the inferred attack rate adjusted for seroreversion across cities, and seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate (IHR) increased significantly during the gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system’s collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43–3.53). These results demonstrate large heterogeneity in epidemic spread and highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to monitor SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
BackgroundPassive antibody therapy with convalescent plasma (CP) represents a promising alternative for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The efficacy of CP therapy has been associated with high titers of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) in the plasma of recovered patients, but the assays for quantifying nAbs are not widely available. Our goal was to develop a strategy to predict high titers of nAbs based on the results of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays and the clinical characteristics of the CP potential donors. MethodsTwo hundred and fourteen CP donors were enrolled and tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using two commercial immunoassays (IA): Anti-SARS-CoV-2 ELISA IgG EUROIMMUN and Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Chemiluminescence IgG Abbott. In parallel, quantification of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) was performed using the Cytopathic effect-based virus neutralization test (CPE-VNT). Three criteria for identifying donors with high titers of nAbs ([≥]1:160) were tested: - Criterion1: Curve ROC Method; - Criterion 2: Conditional decision tree considering only the results from the IA and -Criterion 3: Conditional decision tree including both the IA results and the clinical variables. ResultsThe performance of Abbott and EUROIMMUN immunoassays was similar referring to both S/CO and predictive value for identifying nAbs titers [≥] 1:160. Regarding the three studied criteria for identifying CP donors with high nAbs titers ([≥] 1:160): 1) Criterion 1 showed 76.1% accuracy when the S/CO cut-off of 4.65 was used, 2) Criterion 2 presented 76.1% accuracy if the S/CO [≥] 4.57 was applied and 3) Criterion 3 had 71.6% accuracy if either S/CO [≥] 4.57 or S/CO between 2.68 and 4.57 and the last COVID-19-related symptoms occurred less than 19 days from donor recruiting were used. ConclusionThe results of SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays (S/CO) can be used to predict high nAbs titers of potential CP donors. This study has proposed three different criteria for identifying donors with [≥] 1:160 nAbs titer based on either solely S/CO results or S/CO together with clinical variables, all with high efficacy and accuracy.